Colorado politics has changed over the last decade, and most campaigns have yet to adapt.
Today, more than 2 million Colorado voters are registered without a party, accounting for roughly 52% of the state’s electorate. And the clearest expression of that shift is within the Latino electorate, where roughly 55% of registered voters are unaffiliated, with even higher rates among younger voters.
But despite representing one of the fastest-growing segments of Colorado’s electorate, these voters continue to participate in primaries at significantly lower rates than partisan voters.
That reality carries enormous implications and opportunities for the future of both the Democratic Party and Colorado politics broadly.
Which is why we created the 45-day Latino Unaffiliated Electorate Turnout Memo.
While this memo focuses on Latino unaffiliated voters, the broader trend extends far beyond any one demographic group. Colorado is experiencing a generational shift away from traditional partisan identity, particularly among younger voters who are increasingly motivated more by relevance, culture, and economic conditions than party loyalty.
Latino voters are simply the clearest and fastest-growing expression of that transformation.
The purpose of this project is not to present a perfect formula for solving low turnout. It is to start a conversation with campaigns, political organizations, and operatives across Colorado around a question that will increasingly define elections moving forward:
How do we engage the voters who already exist in the file, but who have not fully entered the electorate?
Because the central premise of this memo is simple:
The 2026 Colorado primary can be decided by voters that most campaigns are not seriously planning to reach.
And in a primary where margins could ultimately be decided by tens of thousands of votes, campaigns ignoring the state’s fastest-growing and least-engaged electorate may be leaving the decisive bloc untouched.
The Core Thesis of the Turnout Memo
The memo estimates there are realistically between 50,000 and 80,000 Latino unaffiliated voters already inside Colorado’s voter file who are not currently modeled as part of the likely primary electorate, but who can still be reached and activated in the final 45 days of the election.
That estimate is derived from turnout gap analysis of Colorado’s roughly 233,000 Latino unaffiliated registered voters, historical primary participation patterns, and modeled activation scenarios in key regions statewide.
And ultimately, if engaged effectively, could be the deciding factor in this primary election.
This memo should be viewed as directional analysis, not predictive certainty. Turnout modeling is inherently variable, particularly among low-propensity and unaffiliated voters whose participation can shift based on competition, timing, messaging, and broader political conditions. The estimates and frameworks outlined here are intended to identify opportunity and inform strategy, not guarantee outcomes.
The problem is simple: a substantial and under-engaged electorate already exists within Colorado’s voter file and remains structurally under-targeted by traditional campaign models.
Election Landscape Insight
For years, Colorado primary campaigns have largely been built around high-propensity partisan voters. That model made sense in an electorate where party affiliation defined political identity more clearly.
But Colorado is no longer that electorate.
Today, younger voters are increasingly choosing unaffiliated registration over formal party affiliation, and no demographic reflects that shift more clearly than Latino voters. In many ways, the Latino electorate is the clearest preview of where Colorado politics is heading.
These voters are not necessarily ideological moderates. They are simply less partisan, less institutional, and more motivated by economic relevance and daily life than party loyalty.
Yet many remain structurally under-contacted because campaigns continue optimizing around habitual turnout rather than emerging participation. In recent election cycles, 58% of Latino voters were never contacted by a campaign at all.
That is not just a turnout problem. It is a campaign strategy failure.
Since 2018:
Colorado’s active voter file has grown from roughly 3.3 million to 3.9 million voters
Unaffiliated registration has expanded from roughly 1.4 million voters to more than 2 million today, now accounting for a majority of the electorate
Democratic registration has grown far more slowly than the unaffiliated electorate
Latinos make up roughly 25% of Colorado’s population, but only about 11% of the electorate
Colorado now has roughly 425,000 registered Latino voters statewide
Approximately 55% are registered as unaffiliated
Hundreds of thousands remain unregistered
My 2026 Primary Election Projection
My projection for the 2026 Democratic primary is approximately 670,000 to 735,000 voters statewide will turnout, based on the 2018 primary election as the closest structural comparison point rather than the unusually high-turnout conditions of 2020.
The memo goes into greater detail about this prediction and historical turnout data.
Why 2026 Looks Like 2018, Not 2020
2020 represents the highest turnout in recent history, and it should not be the anchor for 2026.
2020 was driven by:
A presidential-year electorate
Elevated national attention
Unique pandemic-era voting conditions
2026, by contrast, more closely mirrors 2018:
Open Governor’s race
Multiple competitive statewide contests
High-profile congressional races
No presidential ballot driving turnout
Midterm Primary
The difference between campaigns that organize around traditional turnout assumptions and campaigns willing to aggressively pursue these under-participating voters could meaningfully shape statewide outcomes.
A Wake-Up Call for Democrats
I am a Democrat. And part of the reason I wrote this memo is that I believe Democrats need to think more honestly about what happened with Latino voters in 2024, and what may continue happening if the party does not adapt.
The data increasingly suggests that many Latino voters are not operating through rigid partisan identity. The majority are unaffiliated, meaning political movement is possible in both directions.
The Republican gains with Latino voters in 2024 did not emerge from nowhere. They emerged from a vacuum where many voters felt economically strained, politically unclaimed, and insufficiently engaged by Democrats.
If Democrats want to remain competitive long term, especially with younger, more diverse voters, we cannot simply communicate more to the same highly engaged electorate. We must build systems capable of reaching people who do not already see politics as part of their identity.
That means:
More economic clarity
Less partisan language
More cultural fluency
More relational organizing
More presence in the spaces where people already gather
The memo argues that turnout among these voters is less about ideology and more about personal economic relevance, trust, timing, and contact.
The Election Can Be Won in the Final 10 Days
Colorado’s mail-ballot system creates a unique dynamic: ballots are mailed three weeks before Election Day, but many lower-propensity, Latino, and unaffiliated voters wait until the final days of the election window to return them.
That means turnout among these voters remains highly fluid late into the race. Campaigns capable of maintaining visibility, contact, and cultural relevance through the final 10 days may gain access to voters that traditional turnout models consistently undervalue.
The World Cup Opportunity
The timing of the 2026 primary also creates an especially unusual opportunity because it overlaps directly with the FIFA World Cup.
The World Cup creates one of the few moments where identity, gathering, attention, and emotion converge at scale within the Latino electorate.
And the memo proposes that campaigns should stop viewing civic engagement and culture as separate things.
The Larger Vision
This memo emerged from both political analysis and direct experience organizing in Latino cultural spaces that traditional campaigns rarely enter. The gap between where campaigns communicate and where many younger voters actually gather is now too large to ignore.
Ultimately, this is about more than who wins the 2026 primary. It is about who becomes a consistent part of Colorado’s electorate moving forward.
The long-term future of Democratic politics in Colorado will not be determined solely by persuading already-engaged voters. It will depend on whether campaigns can successfully engage the younger, more independent, and more diverse electorate Colorado is rapidly becoming.
The deeper reality beneath this memo is that Colorado is in a new political era defined less by partisan identity and more by fluid participation among younger and increasingly unaffiliated voters. Latino voters are simply the clearest manifestation of that shift.
Campaigns that recognize this transformation early may not only shape the outcome of the 2026 primary, but also the next decade of Colorado politics itself.
If you are interested in reading the full 45-day Latino Unaffiliated Electorate Turnout Memo, you can find it here.